XI Reasons why Pakistan will win the World Cup

Beware the carefree man who suddenly decides to become preoccupied. For most of his career, Shahid Afridi has played with such daredevil abandon that Pakistan supporters often wondered whose side he was on. Now he cuts a determined leonine figure, hungrily eyeing prey as he prowls open grasslands. You can see the single-mindedness written all over his face. In the twilight of his career, he can see the greatest of prizes on the horizon, and all he has to do is outrun the competition. He is going to drain every ounce to get it done.

Stars are lined up for an Asian team that is not the host

We often think of Australia as the dominant force of recent World Cup history, but Asian teams haven't been far behind. In fact, there has been an Asian team in each World Cup final since 1992, which augurs well for an Asian team making it to the last two in 2011 as well. Add to this the well known World Cup adage that the host side never wins, and you can see that Pakistan - the only Asian team that happens not to be the host - is comfortably placed to come out on top.

Honesty of effort is guaranteed

Thankfully, the spot-fixers have now been tarred and feathered. This landmark development will surely motivate the remaining cricketers to play to the best of their potential. Cleared of distractions that have been diluting their efforts, a more linear relationship between Pakistan's talent and output can be expected to emerge. Everybody better watch out.

Their momentum is surging

By November last year, Pakistan had the poorest ODI record of any team in 2010, worse even than Zimbabwe. Yet they started to pick themselves up bit by bit, and now enter the World Cup with a win-loss ratio that places them ahead of West Indies, New Zealand, Bangladesh, and Zimbabwe. Extrapolated over the next few weeks, this steady trajectory is headed straight to the top of the heap.

They know how to hold their nerve

Knockout matches in the World Cup can easily become a high-stakes quicksand heading into the final overs, when panic can unravel the best talent and preparation. Pakistanis are famous for squandering and surrendering, but they also know how to handle themselves in a close finish. Of the eighteen matches in ODI history decided by 1 wicket with 1 ball or less to spare, Pakistan has been the winner in six, more often than any other team. Pakistani supporters will be loath to agree, but statistics show that tense endings can bring the best out of Pakistan.

They fire best when cornered

We all know the "cornered tigers" story - Imran Khan's stirring exhortation that transformed his scattered 1992 side into champions. There's a good reason it has become folklore - it's utterly true. Squeeze them into a corner and push them against the wall, and Pakistan will explode with the force of a nuclear warhead. Circumstances have lately been pushing and squeezing Pakistan badly - a forfeited Test, doping scandals, an inexplicably dead coach, the stigma of insecurity, and a terrorist attack. The spot-fixing catastrophe may well prove to be the final trigger.

The 2011 format favours a mercurial outfit

After the disaster of the 2007 World Cup, when crowd-pullers India and Pakistan made preliminary exits, the ICC came up with a new formula for 2011, in which wins against unranked teams guarantee a quarter-final spot. After that, it's a rapid-fire shootout and three wins gets you the cup. This creates a truly open field in which Pakistan's unpredictability is a potential advantage.

Their talent is deceptive and disarming

Pakistani players are recognized for world-class talent, but they often apply it haphazardly, getting out to senseless shots and suicidal run outs, and undermining clever bowling by needless wides, no-balls, dropped catches, and erratic ground fielding. The overall effect is to appear attractive but not threatening, like a beautiful cat striking a languid pose. Sharp claws lurk beneath the surface, but you just don't see them and it can trick you into dropping your guard.

They have a seasoned brain trust

Imagine a Pakistan team meeting, and it immediately inspires confidence. Captain Afridi is at the head of the table, vice-captain Misbah is next to him, and Younis Khan, Abdul Razzaq and Shoaib Akhtar occupy the other senior spots. When tactics are discussed, wisdom and experience flows. There are over a thousand ODIs between them, and invaluable know-how from numerous high-stakes encounters, including a successful World Twenty20 title fight. If and when it hits the fan, these are the guys you want in charge.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger

It's one of Friedrich Nietzsche's most memorable quotes, and it applies unambiguously to Pakistan, a team that has been through hardships of all kinds. Any one of these blows could have proved lethal, but it didn't. Not only has the Pakistan team lived to tell the tale, it has managed to accumulate the skills for handling adversity that no other team possesses.

They have a date with fate

Pakistan is a team that has been slapped, beaten, shamed, and kicked about. Murphy's Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will, and for Pakistan this has proven to be a resounding truth. So much has gone wrong for them, in fact, that they are finally due for some much-needed relief. No season lasts forever, it is darkest before the dawn, and nature loves a balance. In short, several pieces of time-honoured wisdom point to Pakistan finally catching a break. 

Starting with a bang

 Three weeks back, this column had looked at team performances with bat and ball in the last ten overs of ODIs over the last two years. This time, the focus shifts to the first ten overs. It's potentially a period when the fate of a match could be decided: the mandatory field restrictions give the batsmen the license to attack almost recklessly, but at the same time it also gives the bowlers an opportunity to exploit this to their advantage. With most ODIs being played on flat tracks which offer little to fast bowlers, the opening slot has become the best position to bat in ODIs, and the first Powerplay gives the batting team the chance to take the initiative, and control the tempo of the rest of the innings.

The last couple of years have generally been a good time for opening batsmen in ODIs, but the batsman who has exploited these opportunities better than anyone else is South Africa's Hashim Amla. He has played 32 ODI innings during this period - each of them at the top of the order - and has been dismissed in the first ten overs only 11 times, a stat that is a good illustration of the excellent form he has been in a format that was supposed to be unsuitable for him. One of the best examples of his ability to utilise the first ten overs came in the match against Pakistan in Dubai last November: from 31 balls he scored 48 runs, with eight fours and a six. That's the most he has scored in the first ten, though he was also splendid against India in Durban on the way to a 36-ball 50, scoring 42 off 29 during the first Powerplay. Overall, he averages almost 71 runs per dismissal, at very nearly a run a ball, during the first ten overs. That's an outstanding combination of the ability to score quickly, and to do so over a long period of time in a manner that is relatively risk-free.

Virender Sehwag's methods are more audacious, which explains why he has been dismissed within the first ten overs 18 times in 31 innings. Sehwag falls cheaply more often, but he also more destructive, scoring at a run-rate of more than seven per over in the first ten. Twice within a week he has reached his half-century within the mandatory Powerplay: against New Zealand in Wellington en route to a 36-ball 54, and in Hamilton five days later when he made an unbeaten 125 off 74 balls.

Eight other batsmen have touched 50 within the first Powerplay, but only one has gone past 60, and gone past it by a significant margin: against England in Barbados, Gayle hammered 80 off 43 balls, of which 76 came in 41 during the first ten overs. Admittedly he took much of the strike during this period, but few other batsmen could have made it count like he did. The second-best in the first Powerplay is Tamim Iqbal's 58 off 39 against India in early 2010.

Best ODI batsmen in the first ten overs (Qual: 500 runs scored)

Batsman	Innings	Runs	Balls	Dismissals	Average	Runs per over	4s/ 6s	Ave x RR/6
Hashim Amla	32	780	795	11	70.90	5.88	110/ 5	69.48
Virender Sehwag	31	772	642	18	42.88	7.21	125/ 12	51.53
Tillakaratne Dilshan	41	1041	964	22	47.31	6.47	179/ 7	51.02
Chris Gayle	33	761	685	17	44.76	6.66	87/ 32	49.68
Shane Watson	51	1073	1238	21	51.09	5.20	141/ 15	44.28
Graeme Smith	29	585	689	13	45.00	5.09	79/ 4	38.18
Gautam Gambhir	35	577	632	14	41.21	5.47	75/ 2	37.57
Andrew Strauss	42	839	1044	18	46.61	4.82	116/ 8	37.44
Upul Tharanga	35	583	801	12	48.58	4.36	82/ 4	35.30
Martin Guptill	37	612	715	16	38.25	5.13	81/ 13	32.70

Among bowlers who've sent down at least 500 deliveries during the first Powerplay, Lonwabo Tsotsobe has the best economy rate, along with Mashrafe Mortaza of Bangladesh, though Mortaza's numbers are boosted by the number of matches he played against less than top-class opponents. Tsotsobe, though, did superbly against the Indians last season, though he too was helped by the fact that India were missing some of their top batsmen during the ODIs. Twice in that series - in Durban and Port Elizabeth - he bowled five overs in the first Powerplay and went at less than four runs per over.

One of the best performances - in terms of economy rates - by a bowlers in a Powerplay overs came from Abdul Razzaq against New Zealand less than two weeks ago, when he gave away a mere 13 runs in five overs and picked up a wicket too. He finished with figures of 1 for 16 from seven, and helped Pakistan to a comfortable win.

Best ODI bowlers in the first ten overs since Jan 2009 (Qual: 500 balls bowled)

Bowler	Innings	Balls	Wickets	Average	Econ rate	Ave x ER/6
Lonwabo Tsotsobe	19	516	14	24.78	4.03	16.64
Mashrafe Mortaza	21	528	13	27.30	4.03	18.34
Nuwan Kulasekara	41	1164	31	27.38	4.37	19.94
Doug Bollinger	31	677	20	26.15	4.63	20.18
Thilan Thushara	22	522	15	27.93	4.81	22.39
Praveen Kumar	32	870	19	34.47	4.51	25.91
James Anderson	36	912	19	35.89	4.48	26.80
Kyle Mills	38	1032	23	34.82	4.65	26.99
Mitchell Johnson	43	618	14	34.78	4.72	27.36
Ashish Nehra	43	929	24	33.66	5.21	29.23

And now for the team analyses, which tells the team which best utilises the overs at the start with both bat and ball. South Africa and Sri Lanka are the ones who seem to do this better than any other side. South Africa's brilliance with the bat - thanks largely to Amla - is also complemented with their strong bowling performances, as both Tsotsobe and Dale Steyn concede less than 4.40 runs per over in the first Powerplay (though Steyn only averages 46 runs per wicket compared to Tsotsobe's 24.78). The net result is that South Africa usually manage to get an edge over their opponents during the early stages of the game with both bat and ball.

Sri Lanka do superbly too, thanks to the excellent opening combination of Tillakaratne Dilshan and Upul Tharanga, who average 51.20 for the first wicket with five century and as many half-century partnerships in 25 innings.

Australia and England are the two other sides who have begun pretty well, but India's bowling pulls down their strong batting stats. Their batting run-rate of 5.41 runs per over compares favourably with the rest of the teams, but with the ball they've been unable to stem the flow of runs in the early overs, going at 5.37 runs per over. With Praveen Kumar ruled out of the competition, the onus for India will be on Zaheer Khan and Sreesanth.

Teams with bat and ball in first ten overs of ODIs since Jan 2009

Team	Bat ave	Run rate	Bowl ave	Econ rate	Ave diff	ER diff
South Africa	56.42	5.49	35.98	4.70	20.44	0.79
Sri Lanka	43.95	5.68	30.08	4.93	13.87	0.75
Australia	39.54	4.73	30.50	4.67	9.04	0.06
Bangladesh	33.56	4.81	28.74	4.93	4.82	-0.12
England	41.66	5.07	38.32	4.91	3.34	0.16
New Zealand	30.10	4.95	34.50	4.85	-4.40	0.10
India	36.94	5.41	43.11	5.37	-6.17	0.04
West Indies	31.17	4.77	42.63	5.07	-11.46	-0.30
Zimbabwe	27.04	4.39	42.46	4.99	-15.42	-0.60
Pakistan	28.93	4.19	46.51	5.30	-17.58	-1.11

The table below lists the eam-wise stats for the opening combinations of each side. Sri Lanka and South Africa are clearly way ahead, thanks to the Dilshan-Tharanga and Amla-Grame Smith combinations. Over the next month and more, these pairs and many others will get opportunities to make a name for themselves in the 2011 World Cup. (Click here for the full list of opening pairs in the first Powerplay in ODIs since January 2009.)

Team-wise opening partnership stats in ODIs since Jan 2009

Team	Innings	Runs	Ave stand	Run rate	50/ 100 p'ships
Sri Lanka	51	2633	51.62	6.21	8/ 14
South Africa	40	1656	42.46	5.70	3/ 11
England	46	1800	39.13	5.41	4/ 9
India	60	2189	37.10	5.78	3/ 13
Australia	71	2630	37.04	5.02	7/ 14
Pakistan	44	1425	33.13	4.67	2/ 10
New Zealand	48	1558	32.45	5.71	3/ 10
West Indies	41	1174	30.10	5.19	1/ 7
Zimbabwe	47	1402	29.82	4.53	4/ 7
Bangladesh	47	1367	29.71	5.25	1/ 7

S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo

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